KILLING 30 PEOPLE
December 21, 2009
by JAMES TENAFLY
Anonymous blogger Security Crank observed earlier this month that US and NATO air strikes in Afghanistan have a conspicuous tendency to kill 30 Afghan or Pakistani militants on every raid. Since last year, at least twelve bombers have returned reporting 30 Taliban dead, a probability of 1 in 1.12156655 × 10^-13 given ideal conditions (whatever that means when you’re bombing people). This, of course violates basic principles of probability and indicates some shady if not outright deceitful book keeping. Phony numbers make it impossible for anyone to judge the success of these campaigns. For what it’s worth, at least we’re not alone in our number grooming: search through this timeline of events in Pakistan for the number 30 and prepare for a real head spin. So when did 30 become a grim, magic number? 2003ish. And Why? For PR of course! In a 2007 interview with Salon, former Pentagon chief of high-value targeting Marc Garlasco said that any strike expected to kill more than 30 civilians needed clearance from either Donald Rumsfeld or GW Bush.
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_thejournalist_: "any strike expected to kill more than 30 civilians needed clearance from either Donald Rumsfeld or GW Bush." well isn't that convenient....just say 30 omfgbbq
about 1 month ago
Aclift: How do they say anyone is a Taliban militant from 30k feet... especially when in previous VBS docs on Afghanistan the soldiers on the ground were not able to reliably say a guy was a militant while they were standing a few feet from him for an extended period of time? Do they just say every pair of adult male thighs they find in the blast radius = 1 dead fighter?
about 1 month ago
eckswyzee: I think you should know that there shouldn't be a negative in that exponent. What you're saying with that negative symbol is that the odds are 1 in .00000000000012156655 which are damn good odds if you ask me. If you played the lotto that's almost a guaranteed win. What you meant to say was 1 in 1.12156655 x 10^(13) which means 11215665500000. Simple mathematics and scientific notation people come on....
about 1 month ago
Munnersby: nice work.
2 months ago
RedAlurk: A job well done.
2 months ago
sbay33: I hope this story spreads (so we can watch the numbers start jumping around)
2 months ago
Taipan: Curiouser and curiouser...
2 months ago
Taipan: Curiouser and curiouser...
2 months ago
ZacharyB: If the explosions are anything like the one shown, 30 might be a low estimate.
2 months ago
dttsc: nice photo
2 months ago
taco_baby: maybe 30 is the default estimate. they don't have a real way of knowing how many are killed. 30 is a nice, round number.
2 months ago
cacophobia: strange
2 months ago
ruckus: "anonymous" but somehow i bet the us gov't knows exactly who he (or she) is.
2 months ago
cacophobia: haha , yep
2 months ago
whiteonrice: nice work, here and by security crank. i have a new blog bookmarked thanks to this post.
2 months ago